SEASON PREVIEW: AL West

Will the Angels production finally catch up to their spending and take a division that they have been under performing in since their Super Slugger Spending Spree began with the signing of Albert Pujols for the 2012 season?  Or will Oakland continue to over play (yes that is correct) their budget and steal the title out from under the two deep pockets of the AL West?

Los Angeles Angels – Each off-season the Angels front office has chased the biggest bat they could buy in 2012 they added Albert Pujols (who has produced far from his STL numbers) and the following season they added Josh Hamilton (who also fell short of his Texas numbers), this season they could not find the best bat (he went to rival Seattle) so they grabbed two bats in David Freese and Raul Ibanez.  Freese’s bat is not all that dangerous lately, but when you consider how far down the lineup he will hit a lifetime .286 hitter in the 7 or 8 spot is pretty competitive, his real strength will be the defense he provides alongside Eric Aybar.

Don’t find concern that the first mention of Mike Trout is this far down, his play is so consistent and far beyond his years there is not reason to say much about him other than, superb.  Arguably the best all around player in baseball and he is still only 22 years old, wait until he hits his prime.

How confident should it make your team feel to have a 17 game winner as their second starter?  A typical first defense is that C.J. Wilson has never pitched to 17 wins before and probably won’t do it again.  Well his previous three seasons were 16, 15 and 13, while 17 may be the highest it is certainly not far from the norm in his earlier years as a starter.  He is 33 and may have pitched his best season, even in decline to get two more 15 win seasons is good production.

Jered Weaver is going to be expected to rebound from an off-year and some injury and return to his ace form.  Even if he can’t win 18 or 20 games again, two pitchers at the top of the rotation winning plus 15 games is a sure way to win the AL West.

Mike Trout is young, but Hamilton and Pujols are not getting any younger and their numbers may be indicating a decline.  The biggest problem for the Angels is winning now.  If the Halos don’t win this year and the Big Two become heavy contracts with declining production it will be impossible for the team to move them for pieces that they can use to entice Trout to stay once his contract is eligible for free agency.  Already a superstar at 22 he will want to win and when he hits free agency at 26, four seasons including 2014, will the Angels have tools that will encourage the center fielder to sign with his ball club.

Oakland A’s – How the A’s keep finding a way to win is beyond comprehension.  Once the secrets of Moneyball we spilled first in a bestselling book and then in a movie you would think more teams would take the sabermetrics approach that Billy Beane perfected into a winning ball club on a cellar dwellers budget.  While many teams have used those tactics to better analyse a top talent and what he can offer in win value the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodger, Angels and company still chose to sign top outfield options and not Josh Reddick.  Though it was surprising to see Oakland deal Jamile Weeks for Jim Johnson, it was even more surprising that the Orioles made the move, maybe they were just as stunned and traded in a moment of confusion.  Or Baltimore sees a value in Weeks that is worth giving up a 50 save guy, in any case closers are highly over rated and I don’t think Johnson will actually add wins, as his job is to come in when they are winning and not lose.

As usual the A’s rotation is strong and the offense is a mish mash of guys who will patchwork together just enough runs for the team to win enough games/ to be in the hunt.  This year the Angels may have the right blend of talent to win the West and Oakland will be to far back in the Wild Card to make their annual one and done playoff series.

Yoenis Cespedes became a household name after the hitting clinic he put on during the Home Run Derby in 2013, his bat in another in a long line of Cuban reliability.  If Cespedes played on a team with players that could consistently get on base in front of him and a strong hitter to protect him in the line up than he would be as popular outside of Oakland as he is in the shadow of the old Colosseum.

Texas Rangers – Trading Ian Kinsler for Prince Fielder will prove to be a giant mistake for the Rangers in the coming seasons with Fielder likely to be unable to keep playing the field due to weight issues, Adrian Beltre aging and needing that experience in the infield.  It’s understandable that star in the making Jurickson Profar is dying to move into his natural position, but current star Kinsler offered security and a compromise should have been reached to move someone around to the corner.

Hitting and offense will not be the Rangers problem, it will be stopping the other team from out scoring the heavy offense that recent additions Alex Rios and Shin Soo Choo will lend to make Texas one of the top 10 scoring teams in baseball.

Beyond Yu Darvish the Rangers don’t have a pitcher that could do better than 5 starter on most squads.  Following Darvish the 4 other starters amassed a paltry 21 wins among themselves in 2013.  Winning will not come easily for this team if the offense even struggles in the smallest of ways.

Houston Astros – The Astros may struggle to approach .500% this year but they are moving in the right direction and their farm is so packed with talent that is just beginning to blossom that in a few years this may be the new bottomless pit of talent that Tampa Bay has become in the East.

The offense will need a few years to really mature and get use to winning, but Jose Altuve and Jason Castro’s talent will be great veteran leadership for guys only a few years younger.

The addition of Nolan Ryan as an adviser to the club can only benefit the young guns in the Astros staff who may pitch harder just knowing one of the greatest pitchers in baseball history is watching and maybe willing to give them a few tips in their hungry learning years.

Jarred Cosart is pitching near the bottom of the rotation but by this time next year this will be his spot after what will be a huge season for the 23-year old right hander.  Look for a season similar to any ace in the AL West from Cosart with at minimum 15 wins and 170 strikeouts with a sub-3.00 ERA and a very strong K/BB ratio.

Seattle Mariners – Many people thought when Jay-z announce he would not only become an agent, but also signed Robinson Cano as his first client that New York would see a hometown deal and Cano would stay in NYC and Jay-Z would be undersold trying to please his city and the team he publicly has supported over the years.

Jay-Z may have used this player and situation to send a message about how serious he intends to be and that he will walk a client right out of his own city and forget what logo he wears on his hat.  I question that regardless of what the Yankees offered Cano if Jay-Z would have found a matching deal else where to send a message to players and teams that he will play hardball with the biggest clubs.

Jay-Z’s quest for respect came at a huge cost for Cano, he went from a major market, the likelihood to captain the Bombers, a yearly contender to win, fans who worshiped him and media that respected him for a team that has a beautiful skyline and a sure-thing to never make the World Series before his playing days conclude.  Expect Cano to be trying to find baseball media that will listen (because all the media is falling the football club) and beg for a way out by 2015.

Note: He is already complaining he needs another bat [HERE].  This isn’t New York, Robinson, the Mariners can’t just go out and buy what you want… even if you do need it.

Adding one of 2014’s biggest free agents won’t fix Seattle’s problems.  Instead of losing 2-6 in a game they now will contend and lose 4-6.  But as much offense as they added you also have to remember they lost Raul Ibenez.   At 41 you have to agree age was a factor and he really didn’t have much left in the tank, but you still have to consider that is 29 HR and 65 RBIs that they lost, so the addition of Cano to the offense is not really as significant as a number without replacing Ibanez’s production.  Seattle is a great city and has amazing fans, but the ownership is just not bringing in the players it needs to compete with the core of the American League that they deserve.

Seattle has three of the best young pitchers in the league with Felix Hernandez the king of the hill at only 27 years old.   Complimenting Hernandez the Mariners rotation features Hisashi Iwakuma, who may actually prove to be a better pitcher after his breakout last year in 2013, but until Iwakuma constantly out performs The King the ace of the club will belong to the big Venezuelan.  A little healthy competition between teammates could turn into a three-way race if Taijuan Walker is every bit as good as the scouts believe and as effective as Walker pitched in September during his late call up.

While Seattle may feature three absolutely striking ace contenders, the problem lies in the rest of the staff.  The two games and relief innings that these players can’t pitch is not dominating enough to keep the game within reach of a pitiful offense and a distancing race in the standing.

SEASON PREVIEW: AL Central

There is not a lot of surprise in a division filled with perennial wiping posts, maybe surprise is not the right word, how about intrigue.  Detroit should easily be the best of the bunch with Chicago, KC, and Cleveland all competing for second best by a mere margin.  Don’t be surprised to see all three teams take each other out of the Wild Card race simply because they could split their series and finish .500.  The Tigers are also one injury away from being in this pack.

Detroit Tigers – Repeating last years success is going to be incredibly difficult for the Boy of Motor City.  

First and foremost is the loss of Prince Fielder.  While I am very critical of how valuable he is as a player and what he offers for 23 million dollars, what he does very well is hit the ball far which drives in runs and offer protection for number three hitter, Miguel Cabrera.  The most feared hitter in baseball will now see a lot less quality pitches come his way with Victor Martinez hitting in the 4-spot instead of Fielder.  

• Martinez  (AGE 35) 14 HR 83 RBI .301 BA
• Fielder (Age 29) 25 HR 106 RBI .279 BA

I don’t think there is any possible way for Miggy to chase a Triple Crown with the amount of junk they will throw him with a declining bat in the wings.  If he can’t swing he can not drive in runs, look for him to double his walks this year.  His numbers will always be impressive and he will probably still hit .340 plus and hit 35 home runs but the hits will be in less significant situations really hog-tying the sluggers abilities.

Ian Kinsler is a great player and will still turn two but now with a different partner in Jose Iglesias who handles shortstop like a veteran.  Defensively this will not improve the team as Omar infante was every bit the two sacker as Kinsler and the hitting balances out with a little less control and a bit more power from Kinsler but we may see those numbers swap dip with the move to Detroit from the hitter friendly confines of Texas.

The move of Kinsler for Fielder was the right play for Detroit, but their mistake was not chasing a free agent like Curtis Granderson or even Cory Hart to protect their best offensive weapon.

I am not sure what GM David Dombrowski was thinking, not only did he let Cabrera fall victim to increased walks, he also let one of their best pitchers walk.  Possessing one of the deepest pitching staffs in all of baseball they let an ace pitcher for many teams go for what would be the equivalent of the Manhattan deal with the American Indians.   While they are still deeper than possibly 25 teams, and Drew Smyly could turn out just as valuable they seemed like they were dumping him out of spite, poor business decision for the Tigers and gift of a lifetime for Washington.

The remainder of the staff in Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Matt Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez really need no words to describe their success.  Verlander, Scherzer and Sanchez should all hit 17 or so wins and their pitiful fifth starter Porcello will have to get by on a measly 15 wins.   The rotation will keep the ball in the park as always, the difficult part will be the offense getting the ball out of the park.

Joe Nathan is again the closer and at 39 the years are really building up, but with only one inning required of him.  Nathan has the stamina to keep it going for a few more years, but even at 45 he could probably still close the deal with the security this rotation provides.

On paper looking at the Tiger’s pitching staff numbers it makes you wonder how a staff that can average 18-5 win-loss records and win 93 total games and not play in the World Series.   The teams that follow Detroit are more of the reason for their success than a testament to their greatness.  The AL Central teams may deserve thank you notes every time one of Detroit’s pitchers signs a massive new deal.

Kansas City Royals – Kansas put on a bit of a show down the stretch and looked like they may almost contend for a shot at the Wild Card.  This season they will have one less really bad team to steal wins from and will find themselves more in the pack with Cleveland and Chicago and not pulling away from it.

Every player in KC’s infield is solid star material, with the exception of Omar Infante who is already there.  Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas man the corners and could easily combine for 50-60 home runs this year and knock in 150 runs between the two of them and what makes that a bigger feet is that both are 25 years old and have a long career to grow.

Alcides Escobar and Infante are not going to hit long balls but the two will keep all kinds of balls from leaving the infield giving KC their first solid double team in a decade.

Salvador Perez is only 23 and if not for his limited innings due to the wear and tear of being a catcher, could actually be their best hitter.  Along with Billy Butler they could add another 40 home runs together to add to the cornersmen’s total.

The outfield is pretty average in bat strength, but with Aoki, Cain and Gordon’s speed they should man that outfield like it is 100 square feet to cover.  If the team gives them the green light the core could swipe 100 bases this year giving the big infielders plenty of chances to drive them in with a deep shot into Kauffman’s vast outfield.

Sporting the weakest rotation of the AL Central will keep the Royals out of any serious playoff talks.  Even with a lucky strike and a shot at the Wild Card, Jake Shields could not stand up against the leagues other WC starters.

Chicago White Sox – Chicago may have one team with a chance to catch a good streak and surprise the city and they don’t play in Wrigley. This year look for the ChiSox to bounce back from obscurity thanks to a very soft division.

Chicago will be seeing a lot of Baseball Tonight highlight time (they hope) thanks to Cuba import Jose Abreu.  If Cuba would just work out a similar deal to the Japanese posting system and earn some money for their economy and not watching young prospect after young prospect defect they could end their financial struggles in one off season with all the amazing talent found on the small island.

Abreu it touted to be the next Yasiel Puig, amazing to be not even a full season into your career and you are the player being compared against already.  His bat carries a bit more consistency on the power and could make the South Side a very exciting place even if they are playing for mediocrity and not a playoff spot.

Avisail Garcia proved he could play after moving to Chicago in the Iglesias deal, and his production in the half a season has earned him a starting spot in right where he will continue to progress and could easily be Chicago’s high average bat in the new young core with Abreu once this team finds its way.

How good do you have to be to pitch on a 63-win team, have a losing record and have an ERA just north of 3 and still have serious consideration for the AL Cy Young?  Try 226Ks and only 46BBs and the strongest strike out to walk ratio of any CY Young candidate. Chris Sale is one of the best lefties in all of baseball and if he was a free agent now, every big market team would offer this kid 15million and then just keep bidding.  Fortunately for Chicago they have 2 more seasons before teams come calling to give him a reason to stay with the White Sox.

Jose Quintana is probably the only other name most fans outside of Chicago will know from their rotation.  Along with Sale both pitchers could push for 18 wins if the season was going Chicago’s way making them as potent as Scherzer and Verlander as a one-two punch.

Most of Chicago’s rotation and bullpen is untested, but if they win 80 plus games this year a few guys like Danks, Paulino and Johnson could become some household names alsong with closer Lindstrom.

Cleveland Indians – Last year the Indians had a streak where things were looking up, and they kept looking up and eventually the season ended with 92-wins and a one game playoff loss to the Tampa Bay Rays.

One reason for the continuous surge and inability to just come back to Earth is that 76 of their 162 games happen to be against sub .500 talent teams, even though KC and Cleveland finished with winning records, had they been in any other division I feel they would have seen 60-70 win seasons at best.

Cleveland looks to take a step back this season and probably fall more into reality with a closer to .500 record with the improvement of Chicago and KC.  None of the 3 middle running teams are better than the other this year and they may spend more time splitting series and negating each other out.

Cleveland has some great talent in Jason Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera who man the middle infield.  The corners are manned by two very aging veterans in Nick Swisher and Mike Aviles both who will likely see an offensive decline, Swisher more so that Aviles who will benefit in longevity due to the move to third and still plays above average defense.  Jason Giambi has half a shot to win the DH spot with 20 or so homers left in his tank and about a .230 BA left in his knees.

The outfield is more problematic that the dirt with a trio that could each be a fourth outfielder on most teams all holding down court on in Cleveland.  Jeff Francoeur may have found just the right mix of players declining in age and young and lacking experience to catch on and actually make the team for the power he can offer alone.

 When 14-10 Justin Masterson with a 3.45 ERA is your ace-in-the-hole you are in trouble.  That sounds like more of an insult than a compliment, but really it is an insult to the rotation in general that they could win 93 games and the best pitcher they have to show for it is a marginally good year.  Materson is decent and a lot of teams would jump at the 27-year-old for their rotation if the Indians put him on the block, but every team that would be looking at him would probably consider him a 4th or 5th at best and in some scenarios just a short-term injury replacement that could not hold on come full strength.  Simple test, would you put Masterson anywhere in a rotation like the Cardinals, Pirates, Detroit, Red Sox, Atlanta, Dodgers or even the Yankees?  I think at best he makes long relief on any of those teams.  Lets not even mention the closer situation.

Minnesota Twins – Even in a weak division the Twins have little hope.  Maybe they will bring up Byron Buxton early and not waste that whole May 1 call up to save his full season foolishness and give us a reason to care what the Twinsees are doing.